The recent NATO summit wrapped up with a flurry of commitments and discussions, leaving a significant mark on the alliance's future. Leaders reaffirmed their dedication to significantly increasing defence spending and addressed the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, while also navigating some underlying disagreements. Here's a breakdown of the key takeaways from Vilnius, Lithuania.

Boosting Defence Budgets: A 'Quantum Leap' to 5% of GDP?

A major announcement from the summit was the push for NATO members to aim for defence spending of 5% of their Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 2035. While not a legally binding agreement, this ambitious target signals a renewed urgency in response to the evolving security landscape. Leaders used strong language, describing the increase as a “crucial” and even a “quantum leap” in bolstering collective defence. The current guideline of 2% of GDP, established in 2014, is now seen as insufficient given the heightened tensions with Russia.

However, the path to achieving this 5% target won't be straightforward. Significant economic challenges and varying national priorities mean implementation will be uneven across member states. Some nations are already struggling to meet the 2% benchmark, and the prospect of a further increase will require difficult budgetary decisions. The summit highlighted the need for greater transparency and accountability in how defence spending is allocated, ensuring resources are used effectively to address shared security threats.

Ukraine Remains Front and Centre

Unsurprisingly, the war in Ukraine dominated much of the summit's agenda. NATO leaders reiterated their unwavering support for Kyiv’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. While a formal invitation to join NATO remains on hold, discussions focused on providing Ukraine with the necessary military and financial assistance to defend itself and prepare for future security challenges. A key development was the commitment to strengthen cooperation on ammunition production and supply, addressing a critical shortage that has hampered Ukraine's war effort.

The summit also addressed the issue of security guarantees for Ukraine, exploring options that could provide a framework for long-term stability even without immediate NATO membership. These guarantees are intended to deter future Russian aggression and reassure Ukraine of continued Western support.

Divisions and Challenges Within the Alliance

Despite the outward display of unity, the summit also exposed some underlying tensions within NATO. Disagreements over the pace and scope of support for Ukraine, as well as differing views on how to engage with Russia, were evident in closed-door discussions. The ongoing debate about burden-sharing and the equitable distribution of defence costs also remains a persistent challenge.

Furthermore, the summit highlighted the need for NATO to adapt to new and emerging threats, including cyber warfare, disinformation campaigns, and the rise of China's military capabilities. Strengthening resilience and developing innovative defence strategies will be crucial to maintaining the alliance's effectiveness in a rapidly changing world.

Looking Ahead: A Transformed NATO?

The Vilnius summit marks a pivotal moment for NATO. The commitment to increased defence spending, the continued focus on supporting Ukraine, and the recognition of emerging threats all point towards a transformed alliance prepared to meet the challenges of the 21st century. However, achieving these goals will require sustained political will, economic investment, and a willingness to address internal divisions. The coming years will be crucial in determining whether NATO can successfully adapt and remain a credible deterrent against aggression in a volatile global landscape.