NAND shortages may ease by 2027 while DRAM crisis could persist for a decade
NAND flash shortages may subside by 2027, but ADATA warns that DRAM supply constraints could impact the market for up to ten years.
NAND flash supply outlook
The semiconductor market is facing a bifurcated outlook regarding memory component availability. According to the latest report from TrendForce, the current pressures affecting NAND flash memory—the technology primarily used in Solid State Drives (SSDs)—are expected to see relief by 2027.
This potential easing of supply constraints offers a rare positive projection for consumers and enterprise users tracking SSD pricing trends. While the market has faced volatility, the projected increase in production capacity suggests a stabilisation of the NAND market in the medium term.
ADATA warns of prolonged DRAM instability
While the NAND outlook appears optimistic, ADATA has issued a stark warning regarding the DRAM (Dynamic Random Access Memory) sector. Unlike the projected recovery for NAND, the DRAM crisis is expected to remain a significant factor in the hardware industry for a much longer duration.
Industry analysts suggest that structural issues within the DRAM supply chain could cause instability to last for as long as 10 years. This prolonged period of volatility poses challenges for manufacturers of computers, servers, and mobile devices that rely heavily on stable memory pricing and availability.
Key market distinctions
The divergence between the two memory types highlights the complexity of the current semiconductor landscape. Key differences in the outlook include:
- NAND Flash: Targeted recovery expected by 2027, potentially lowering the barrier for high-capacity SSD adoption.
- DRAM: Long-term supply risks identified, with potential disruptions spanning a decade.
- Market Impact: While storage costs may stabilise, system memory costs remain highly unpredictable.
The discrepancy in these timelines is largely driven by differing manufacturing complexities and the specific demand drivers for each technology. While NAND supply is closely tied to consumer storage needs, DRAM is increasingly constrained by the rapid expansion of Artificial Intelligence (AI) infrastructure and high-performance computing requirements.
As manufacturers scale production to meet these shifting demands, the industry remains cautious about how capacity expansions will offset the long-term scarcity predicted for DRAM components.
